dimanche 27 novembre 2011

GOP debates: Nov 19 & 22: speaking time disparities

Two more GOP debates were held during this past week.   The debate on November 19 was focused on values, with Romney and Huntsman absent (they were invited).  The debate on November 22 was focused on national security.

A few comments on these debates:

  • With fewer candidates present at the November 19 debate, each candidate had more time to speak than usual.   The distribution of speaking time was quite different in this debate, compared to the debates over the last three months, with Santorum having a large lead.  At one point he spoke for seven and a half minutes, sharing a personal story of the birth and health conditions of his daughter.
  • Even though Romney was absent from this debate, he still has had much more cumulative speaking time over the last three months, than most of the candidates.

Memorable quotes:
Gingrich critical about Occupy Wall Street (November 19):
Jefferson said that a people who want to be both free and ignorant are asking for something which has never been and will never be. Captain John Smith said in 1607 in the first permanent English speaking colony to the aristocrats who had paid their way and didn't want to work, “if you don't work you don't eat.”  There's a deep sense of responsibility. Now let me take that and for a brief moment describe Occupy Wall Street.  All of the Occupy movement starts with the premise that we all owe them everything.  They take over a public park they didn't pay for, to go nearby to use bathrooms they didn't pay for, to beg for food from places they don't want to pay for, obstruct those who are going to work to pay the taxes to sustain the bathrooms and to sustain the park, so they can self-righteously explain that they are the paragons of virtue to which we owe everything.  Now, that is a pretty good symptom of how much the left has collapsed as a moral system in this country and why you need to reassert something as simple as saying to them: “Go get a job right after you take a bath.”

Santorum on profiling Muslims (November 22):
Q: Just to be precise: is it ethnic profiling, religious profiling, who would be profiled? 
A: Well, the folks who are most likely to be committing these crimes.  If you look at, I mean, obviously muslims would be someone you'd look at, absolutely.  Those are the folks who are the radical muslims who are the people that are committing these crimes, by and large, as well as younger males. I mean, these are things that, not exclusively, but these are things that you profile to find the most likely candidate.

Santorum: Africa is a country (November 22):
Africa was a country that was on the brink, on the brink of complete meltdown and chaos.


November 19 (Thanksgiving Family Forum, Des Moines, Iowa)

Candidate Speaking time (min)
Santorum 24.27
Gingrich 17.70
Paul 17.05
Bachmann 16.35
Perry 15.83
Cain 13.33



November 22 (DAR Constitution Hall,Washington, DC)

Candidate Speaking time (min)
Perry 12.38
Gingrich 11.73
Romney 9.92
Paul 9.73
Bachmann 8.97
Santorum 8.25
Huntsman 8.22
Cain 5.48



Cumulative debate speaking time from September 7 to November 22
Candidate Speaking time (min)
Perry 112.40
Romney 102.35
Gingrich 84.22
Santorum 83.24
Bachmann 81.50
Paul 76.15
Cain 72.54
Huntsman 53.41
Johnson 4.23


Notes
November 19:


Candidate Speaking time (min) Start End Comments
Paul 1,03 00:38:55 00:39:57
Cain 0,38 00:40:05 00:40:28
Bachmann 1,92 00:40:28 00:42:23
Perry 1,27 00:42:23 00:43:39
Santorum 2,78 00:44:06 00:46:53
Gingrich 1,67 00:47:10 00:48:50
Santorum 1,43 00:49:26 00:50:52
Paul 1,50 00:50:53 00:52:23
Cain 1,02 00:52:30 00:53:31
Gingrich 2,15 00:54:30 00:56:39
Perry 2,35 00:56:39 00:59:00
Paul 1,30 00:59:02 01:00:20
Bachmann 1,43 01:00:23 01:01:49
Bachmann 0,15 01:02:21 01:02:30
Cain 0,90 01:02:33 01:03:27
Paul 0,70 01:04:04 01:04:46
Bachmann 0,65 01:04:50 01:05:29
Cain 0,57 01:05:35 01:06:09
Perry 1,73 01:06:15 01:07:59
Santorum 1,95 01:08:09 01:10:06
Gingrich 1,23 01:10:06 01:11:20 OWS comments. Jefferson said that a people who want to be both free and ignorant are asking for something which has never been and will never be. Captain John Smith said in 1607 in the first permanent English speaking colony to the aristocrats who had paid their way and didn't want to work, “if you don't work you don't eat.” There's a deep sense of responsibility. Now let me take that and for a brief moment describe Occupy Wall Street. All of the Occupy movement starts with the premise that we all owe them everything. They take over a public park they didn't pay for, to go nearby to use bathrooms they didn't pay for, to beg for food from places they don't want to pay for, obstruct those who are going to work to pay the taxes to sustain the bathrooms and to sustain the park, so they can self-righteously explain that they are the paragons of virtue to which we owe everything. Now, that is a pretty good symptom of how much the left has collapsed as a moral system in this country and why you need to reassert something as simple as saying to them: “Go get a job right after you take a bath.”
Cain 0,73 01:11:30 01:12:14
Cain 1,87 01:13:11 01:15:03
Paul 0,90 01:15:06 01:16:00
Perry 1,97 01:16:27 01:18:25
Cain 0,38 01:18:30 01:18:53
Bachmann 0,33 01:19:02 01:19:22
Santorum 1,25 01:19:30 01:20:45
Cain 0,13 01:22:02 01:22:10
Cain 0,60 01:22:26 01:23:02
Gingrich 0,78 01:23:08 01:23:55
Paul 1,37 01:24:03 01:25:25
Paul 0,97 01:25:32 01:26:30
Bachmann 1,60 01:26:39 01:28:15
Perry 0,57 01:28:56 01:29:30
Santorum 1,62 01:29:35 01:31:12
Gingrich 1,12 01:31:56 01:33:03
Bachmann 1,33 01:34:39 01:35:59
Gingrich 1,15 01:36:05 01:37:14
Santorum 1,22 01:37:25 01:38:38
Cain 1,98 01:46:11 01:48:10
Perry 3,92 01:48:24 01:52:19
Paul 2,42 01:52:30 01:54:55
Paul 0,22 01:55:07 01:55:20
Bachmann 3,40 01:55:30 01:58:54
Santorum 7,30 01:59:07 02:06:25
Gingrich 2,50 02:06:30 02:09:00
Gingrich 3,72 02:10:47 02:14:30
Paul 2,08 02:14:53 02:16:58
Cain 2,43 02:17:05 02:19:31
Perry 0,87 02:19:39 02:20:31
Paul 2,38 02:20:55 02:23:18
Santorum 1,80 02:23:45 02:25:33
Bachmann 1,93 02:25:44 02:27:40
Cain 0,33 02:28:06 02:28:26
Gingrich 0,50 02:28:37 02:29:07
Gingrich 0,55 02:29:58 02:30:31
Perry 1,82 02:30:40 02:32:29
Cain 1,08 02:32:35 02:33:40
Santorum 2,10 02:34:23 02:36:29
Bachmann 1,87 02:36:35 02:38:27
Paul 2,18 02:39:12 02:41:23
Bachmann 1,73 02:41:33 02:43:17
Cain 0,92 02:43:24 02:44:19
Perry 1,35 02:44:27 02:45:48
Santorum 2,82 02:45:55 02:48:44
Gingrich 2,33 02:48:56 02:51:16


November 22:

Candidate Speaking time Start time End time Comments
Gingrich 1,60 00:00:39 00:02:15
Paul 0,90 00:02:20 00:03:14
Gingrich 0,33 00:03:22 00:03:42
Paul 0,47 00:03:49 00:04:17
Bachmann 1,17 00:04:25 00:05:35
Huntsman 1,03 00:05:42 00:06:44
Romney 1,20 00:07:02 00:08:14
Perry 1,07 00:08:25 00:09:29
Santorum 1,72 00:09:28 00:11:11 Profile muslims: Just to be precise: is it ethnic profiling, religious profiling, who would be profiled? Well, the folks who are most likely to be committing these crimes. If you look at, I mean, obviously muslims would be someone you'd look at, absolutely, those are the folks who are the radical muslims who are the people that are committing these crimes, by and large, as well as younger males, I mean, these are things that not exclusively, but these are things that you profile to find the most likely candidate.
Paul 0,90 00:11:19 00:12:13
Cain 1,55 00:12:27 00:14:00
Huntsman 1,45 00:14:51 00:16:18
Bachmann 1,77 00:16:33 00:18:19
Perry 1,07 00:18:20 00:19:24
Bachmann 0,77 00:19:25 00:20:11
Perry 0,60 00:20:12 00:20:48
Bachmann 0,17 00:20:48 00:20:58
Perry 1,35 00:21:31 00:22:52
Huntsman 0,87 00:22:58 00:23:50
Huntsman 0,43 00:24:00 00:24:26
Romney 0,85 00:24:26 00:25:17
Huntsman 0,50 00:25:20 00:25:50
Romney 0,63 00:25:58 00:26:36
Gingrich 1,47 00:26:40 00:28:08
Santorum 1,17 00:28:17 00:29:27
Cain 0,75 00:30:40 00:31:25
Paul 1,80 00:31:31 00:33:19
Cain 0,57 00:33:23 00:33:57
Perry 1,03 00:34:38 00:35:40 Sanction the Iranian central bank
Gingrich 1,42 00:36:07 00:37:32
Bachmann 1,42 00:37:37 00:39:02
Santorum 1,23 00:39:39 00:40:53 Africa was a country that was on the brink, on the brink of complete meltdown and chaos.
Cain 0,45 00:41:07 00:41:34
Paul 0,92 00:41:36 00:42:31
Romney 0,40 00:42:36 00:43:00
Paul 0,45 00:43:06 00:43:33
Romney 1,32 00:43:40 00:44:59
Gingrich 2,27 00:45:30 00:47:46
Huntsman 2,02 00:47:51 00:49:52
Perry 2,40 00:50:30 00:52:54
Santorum 1,57 00:53:20 00:54:54
Gingrich 1,17 00:55:35 00:56:45
Bachmann 1,65 00:56:50 00:58:29
Perry 1,38 01:00:17 01:01:40
Paul 2,08 01:01:46 01:03:51
Cain 1,07 01:03:56 01:05:00
Gingrich 1,37 01:05:25 01:06:47
Santorum 1,62 01:07:20 01:08:57
Bachmann 0,98 01:09:01 01:10:00
Gingrich 0,78 01:10:01 01:10:48
Bachmann 0,42 01:10:50 01:11:15
Romney 2,00 01:11:29 01:13:29
Gingrich 0,90 01:13:35 01:14:29
Perry 1,25 01:14:39 01:15:54
Romney 1,00 01:15:55 01:16:55
Cain 0,87 01:18:23 01:19:15
Perry 1,12 01:19:20 01:20:27
Huntsman 1,35 01:20:53 01:22:14
Paul 1,65 01:22:47 01:24:26
Romney 1,80 01:24:30 01:26:18
Perry 0,47 01:26:19 01:26:47
Santorum 0,95 01:27:10 01:28:07
Paul 0,57 01:28:10 01:28:44
Perry 0,65 01:28:44 01:29:23
Romney 0,72 01:29:23 01:30:06
Cain 0,23 01:30:11 01:30:25
Gingrich 0,43 01:30:27 01:30:53
Bachmann 0,63 01:30:54 01:31:32
Huntsman 0,57 01:31:33 01:32:07


Photo credits

The photographers of the heads above obviously do not necessarily support, or even know of the existence of, this blog :) .

Cain/Santorum/Gingrich/Perry: Gage Skidmore. Wikipedia articles for the candidates.
Romney: Brian Rawson-Ketchum (rawmustard)  on Flickr.


dimanche 13 novembre 2011

November 9 & 12 GOP debates: speaking time disparities

The speaking time distribution for the November 9 and November 12 debates is displayed below.

Michigan debate: the top 12.5% have 21.5% of the speaking time
The November 9 debate had the biggest gap between the first and second place candidates (in terms of time allocated to speak) since I've been tracking the debates: Romney having over 15 minutes while Gingrich had less than 10 minutes.  In other words, Romney had over 50% more time to speak than Gingrich (let alone the other candidates who had even less time to speak).

South Carolina debate: progress toward fair speaking time, but bias against Ron Paul
The moderators at the November 12 debate seemed to make more efforts than usual to prevent the candidates from going over their allocated 1 minute answering time, often interrupting the candidates.  However, in doing so, they actually cut off some candidates before their speaking time should have been up.

The normal procedure was supposed to allow 1 minute for candidates to answer a question, and 30 seconds for a rebuttal.   During the first 38 minutes of the debate, 22 questions were given to the eight candidates.  This should have been distributed in such a way that each of the candidates answered 2-3 questions. However, only one of these questions was directed toward Ron Paul (at 9 minutes into the debate), in the form of a rebuttal, during which he was cut off after speaking for 39 seconds.  This question should not have been posed as a rebuttal, since it was the first question directed to Paul, and it was not in response to his name being mentioned by another candidate.  Furthermore, during this same period, Perry had 4.92 minutes to speak, Gingrich 4.87, and Romney 3.3 minutes.   On another of Ron Paul's opportunities to answer, which was not a rebuttal (around 56 minutes into the debate), he was also interrupted early, after 47 seconds.

Romney was also interrupted prematurely at around 6 minutes into the debate, but upon insisting that the he deserved more time, the moderators agreed.  However, Romney continued to spend a total of over 2.5 minutes on this question.

Michigan debate speaking time distribution

South Carolina debate speaking time distribution

Cumulative speaking time since September
The following chart shows the cumulative speaking time over the last two months.  Even though Romney came in third place at the latest debate (November 12), he is still leading with 92 minutes while the bulk of the candidates have had between 45 and 55 minutes to speak.

Cumulative speaking time distribution

Notes
As always, here are my raw notes from the debates.  I invite anybody who might also be tracking this to let me know of any inconsistencies.

November 9
The video is here.

Cain 1.22 05:13.00 06:26.00
Romney 1.68 06:34.00 08:15.00
Paul 1.07 08:41.00 09:45.00
Huntsman 0.98 10:07.00 11:06.00
Romney 1.22 11:57.00 13:10.00
Romney 0.95 13:43.00 14:40.00
Perry 0.60 15:15.00 15:51.00
Gingrich 1.22 16:22.00 17:35.00
Bachmann 1.28 17:44.00 19:01.00
Santorum 1.32 19:27.00 20:46.00
Cain 1.15 21:25.00 22:34.00
Romney 0.27 22:54.00 23:10.00
Huntsman 1.80 23:56.00 25:44.00
Romney 0.97 26:12.00 27:10.00
Perry 0.28 27:22.00 27:39.00
Gingrich 0.77 27:45.00 28:31.00
Gingrich 0.33 28:49.00 29:09.00
Santorum 1.35 29:43.00 31:04.00
Cain 1.55 31:37.00 33:10.00
Romney 1.15 33:30.00 34:39.00
Bachmann 1.17 34:52.00 36:02.00
Paul 1.82 36:13.00 38:02.00
Gingrich 1.02 01:01.00 02:02.00
Romney 0.85 02:11.00 03:02.00
Romney 0.72 03:33.00 04:16.00
Perry 1.15 04:28.00 05:37.00
Bachmann 1.18 05:59.00 07:10.00
Gingrich 1.12 07:20.00 08:27.00
Cain 1.42 08:53.00 10:18.00
Huntsman 1.60 10:45.00 12:21.00
Huntsman 0.83 12:33.00 13:23.00
Paul 0.75 13:27.00 14:12.00
Perry 0.58 14:14.00 14:49.00
Cain 0.48 14:50.00 15:19.00
Romney 0.85 15:22.00 16:13.00
Gingrich 0.83 16:17.00 17:07.00
Gingrich 0.98 17:19.00 18:18.00
Bachmann 1.15 18:24.00 19:33.00
Santorum 1.58 19:39.00 21:14.00
Romney 0.85 21:17.00 22:08.00
Romney 0.63 22:30.00 23:08.00
Paul 1.32 23:10.00 24:29.00
Santorum 1.20 01:20.00 02:32.00
Romney 1.20 02:52.00 04:04.00
Perry 1.95 04:09.00 06:06.00
Cain 1.12 06:21.00 07:28.00
Gingrich 1.25 08:14.00 09:29.00
Romney 1.40 09:50.00 11:14.00
Bachmann 0.98 11:35.00 12:34.00
Huntsman 1.55 13:16.00 14:49.00
Paul 1.73 15:57.00 17:41.00
Gingrich 1.35 18:03.00 19:24.00
Perry 1.38 19:46.00 21:09.00
Perry 0.98 21:13.00 22:12.00
Cain 1.05 23:00.00 24:03.00
Romney 0.93 24:07.00 25:03.00
Romney 0.67 25:14.00 25:54.00
Gingrich 0.98 26:10.00 27:09.00
Huntsman 1.28 27:13.00 28:30.00
Romney 0.90 28:35.00 29:29.00
Bachmann 1.13 29:33.00 30:41.00
Cain 1.50 31:40.00 33:10.00
Perry 1.03 33:28.00 34:30.00
Paul 1.17 34:41.00 35:51.00


November 12
The video is here.

Cain 1.60 04:00.00 05:36.00
Romney 2.37 05:47.00 08:09.00 Interrupted prematurely but then continued to talk
Gingrich 1.12 08:23.00 09:30.00
Paul 0.65 09:39.00 10:18.00 Follow-up 30 seconds ?
Perry 1.92 10:28.00 12:23.00
Santorum 1.77 12:44.00 14:30.00 Victory in Afghanistan would mean that the Taliban is no longer a security threat to the Afghan people or to our country. Re: pro-democracy movement in Iran, Bush didn't provide money for this, and Obama cut this money ? We should be working with Israel right now, to do what they did in Syria, what they did in Iraq, which is take out that nuclear capability, before the next explosion we hear in Iran is a nuclear one and then the world changes.
Bachmann 1.12 14:43.00 15:50.00
Huntsman 1.60 16:07.00 17:43.00
Romney 0.95 17:53.00 18:50.00
Gingrich 0.75 18:58.00 19:43.00
Cain 1.45 19:56.00 21:23.00
Perry 1.17 21:35.00 22:45.00
Perry 0.60 23:01.00 23:37.00
Bachmann 1.20 24:02.00 25:14.00
Gingrich 1.40 25:33.00 26:57.00
Santorum 1.95 27:05.00 29:02.00
Gingrich 1.60 30:03.00 31:39.00
Cain 0.77 31:54.00 32:40.00
Santorum 1.55 32:50.00 34:23.00
Perry 1.23 34:55.00 36:09.00
Cain 1.05 36:44.00 37:47.00
Bachmann 0.68 37:53.00 38:34.00
Paul 0.82 38:42.00 39:31.00
Huntsman 0.85 39:50.00 40:41.00
Romney 1.25 41:02.00 42:17.00
Gingrich 1.10 42:40.00 43:46.00
Perry 1.17 44:09.00 45:19.00 China
Romney 1.97 45:29.00 47:27.00
Huntsman 0.95 47:43.00 48:40.00
Perry 1.08 49:29.00 50:34.00
Bachmann 1.42 52:25.00 53:50.00
Cain 1.10 54:05.00 55:11.00
Gingrich 1.07 55:26.00 56:30.00
Paul 0.78 56:38.00 57:25.00 Interrupted him before a minute was up
Romney 0.67 57:39.00 58:19.00
Cain 0.42 59:32.00 59:57.00 Keep gitmo open, allow the military to use enhanced interrogation techniques
Santorum 1.02 00:04.00 01:05.00
Paul 1.13 01:14.00 02:22.00
Perry 1.10 02:37.00 03:43.00
Bachmann 0.85 03:50.00 04:41.00
Paul 0.42 04:45.00 05:10.00
Perry 1.20 05:54.00 07:06.00
Huntsman 1.35 07:11.00 08:32.00
Gingrich 1.32 08:35.00 09:54.00
Bachmann 1.23 10:00.00 11:14.00
Cain 1.37 11:32.00 12:54.00
Romney 1.42 13:03.00 14:28.00
Santorum 0.50 15:50.00 16:20.00
Gingrich 0.58 16:24.00 16:59.00 We are in a very dangerous world
Huntsman 1.18 17:23.00 18:34.00
Perry 0.43 18:44.00 19:10.00



Photo credits

The photographers of the heads above obviously do not necessarily support, or even know of the existence of, this blog :) .

Cain/Santorum/Gingrich/Perry: Gage Skidmore. Wikipedia articles for the candidates.
Romney: Brian Rawson-Ketchum (rawmustard)  on Flickr.